The Corona situation is constantly changing. In countries where the health system is very strong, many people seeing their misery and helplessness are thinking that we have no hope. One of my acquaintances, who came back to the country to render services to Bangladesh fled. There is no hope in the health system of this country! Those of us, who had no trust on the health system of this country and used to go abroad for treatment even for a stomachache, are now in danger. Might have to die in 'unhealthy' healthcare system of this country! Alas! Now they understand how important it was for us to live in the country and protect its domestic systems. We ignored it.   Hopefully, they will know their mistakes and will help correct the system in future. As I wrote in the previous article, Corona will change us. But we are now in the middle of life and death. Will we stay home or go to work? This question is now asked by millions of people. Shall we die of hunger or shall we die in corona? The probability of death is 100% if there is hunger and it is only is 2-3% if it is corona!

All sections of the government have been encouraged to increase the relief activities. To my knowledge many have come forward at the private level. Let's start with some information. According to government estimates, about 13 percent of the population in the country which is about 20 million people cannot eat three times a day. This means that about one lakh families do not eat meals three times a day regularly and are in extreme poverty. They can't afford it. Apart from them, another 1.5 crore people or 1.7 million families are also living in poverty. The number of poor families in the 1974 was about 92 lakhs. At that time Bangladesh was an agricultural country. Due to the floods, the crops were destroyed and the working people lost their source of income as they could not find work. Working hours are naturally determined in an agrarian economy. So we had to wait for work until the next harvest.  What has happened after this is a long story. The rich did not lack any food. But the poor and middle-income people went in half-starved mode. Shilpacharya Zainul's picture reminds us a lot. At the same time, an American professor whom I know came to advise the government of Bangladesh. He was staying in the Hotel Intercontinental. In his words, ‘One night a government secretary took me to the famous Sakura restaurant across the street. As I walked across the gate I saw a sad scene but the secretary was completely unmoved. He pushed them off with his feet and threw them away. We went to Sakura. I still remember that scene. I could not eat."  Needless to say, he described the incident to me in 2012. I'm thinking of words because we have more to think about in terms of relief.

Let us come back now. The cause of the misery we are in today is also natural. Mankind is infected with the novel coronavirus. But now we are not an agrarian economy. Now 53 percent of our country's economy is service dependent. 33% is industrial based and only 14% is agricultural, although the agricultural sector is the source of income for about 40% of the workers. Today's situation is different. Now about 50 percent of the work has stopped. There is only agriculture going on. Farmers will also be in danger. Because if you can't sell the product, it will be rotten in the field.  Enthusiastic government employees are demanding a full closure of the markets and if it is implemented then the whole economy will be mumbling. Closing the markets and keeping the supply of goods open through social distancing is not the same thing. Industrial production has stopped due to non-existent transportation system. Everyone is asking for the help from the government.

Keeping the production system going is not easy. It needs raw materials. Needs workers. But for now it will not be possible. In this situation everyone demands stimulus packages. But the question is why is the stimulus? First, to pay for salaries of the employees, since there is no income but they have to pay. Secondly, to pay bills for rent, electricity, water etc. Third, to repay their debts.  The purpose of the government will be to provide incentives so that the owners do not sit at home and do Facebooking by closing the factories. As soon as the government announced the first incentive package, several organizations announced the closure of factories. So why encourage them? If 100 percent of the monthly income is available as stimulus why would the employees go to the factory?

All the governments in the world are in a dilemma with this. US incentive rules will be available to employees directly.  The British said they would pay 80 percent of the salary. No money will go into the hands of the owners. it will be sent to the hands of the employees. The central banks are giving incentives only on interest against loans. That means, the interest on the loan will be waived and the money will go to the lender or the bank. They are giving incentives for businesses based on their VAT or income tax records. For small businesses it a monthly incentives package. In other words, all countries are vigilant enough so that incentives do not mean spending on the entertainment of the owners. In our country, the loan money is smuggled abroad. So it is better to be careful when giving incentives. One of my acquaintances, an industrialist who has borrowed thousands of crores of taka owns about a dozen houses in Malaysia and Britain. Everything he has is with debt money. Should the interest on his loan be waived? He is now trying to get stimulus for himself in Britain too.

When this is the case, the government should proceed with the proper incentive structure. First, for all medium enterprises, those who are paying taxes will be counted separately. Those who do not pay taxes will be considered as small businesses.  For them incentives should be given in accordance with the rules of the small businesses.  If this happens then in future everyone will be interested to pay taxes. At this time in the country, the word on tax issue may not seem relevant to many. But the government should be concerned with it.  However, this does not mean that you will get more incentives if you pay more taxes. Create the required links and for those who are not subject to taxation, there is a need for a simple system, called the Social Safety Net or social protection system. There is no difference between rich and poor under it. Everyone will get incentives at the same rate.

Needless to say, the government has already started distributing packets of rice and pulses to the poor. This is not unexpected. But it also needs to think about its distribution strategy. Six lakh people have come to the country from abroad. They all had passports and we can't find them now. When this is the case, more thought should be given on how the incentive will reach to general public. Distribution needs to be based by the area. Let's talk about a post-Sidor survey. The survey found that no one was interested in distributing relief in remote areas. As a result, these activities took place within a few kilometers of the cities. Government employees or NGOs are less interested in going to distant places. They want propaganda, do not have motivation. So you will see that these activities do not have any depth. It is doomed to be failed.   I went to a remote village in Barguna, where I learned of the post-Sidor relief was delivered only by the village UP member. He did it because he has to go to the villagers to get their votes. In case of public servants, they are constantly involved in pleasing the rulers. It is their job to keep the ruler happy or to convey the good news to them. In any case, if the ruler is unhappy, they can only be transferred. Nothing more than that. Their fate is not dependent on the welfare of the people. Sadly, we still have a lot of faith in government employees (as rulers), not in public representatives. As a result, people's friends remain hidden. The issue is not desirable in a democratic system.

The point is, if the government channelise relief distribution through local elected representatives, it is definitely reach every village. It will be the responsibility of the government servants to ensure that the relief reaches the right place. Otherwise starving people will appear in the citoes and then it can't be handled even by opening meal distribution centers.  That is what our history says. It is desirable that the efforts to deliver rice and pulses to the majority of the poor do not fail.

 

Dr. A. K. Enamul Haque: Professor, Department of Economics, East West University, Asian Center for Development